PENNY / MULTIBAGGER STOCK OF 2009

THE STOCK OF VALUE .65 PAISA BECOME OF Rs. 165 AFTER 3 YEARS
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STOCK NAME : CALS REFINERIES LTD SCRIP ID : CALSREF


CALS REFINERIES - ESTIMATION OF SHARE PRICE
rough Estimation of Cals Price

CAPACITY OF REFINERY = 5 MMTPA
= 100000 Barrels Per
= 36500000 Barrels Per Annum

Assume Gross Refining Margin (GRM) Per Barrel is 10$ = 500Rs

Then Annual Profit = 36500000 * 500 RS = 1825 Crores
Then EPS becomes = 1824/794 = 2.3
(Where 794 crores is the total Equity of CALS )

Now Let us take the minimum and Maximum P.E ratio of Indian Refining Sector PE as 10 - 18 (Minimum and Maximum)

Then Share Price = 10 *2.3 - 18*2.3 = 23.00- 41.40

After Completion of Phase-1 the share price can come to 23.00-41.40

Applying the same for Phase-2 with a capacity of 10 MMPTA then the
Share Price can come to 46.00- 82.80

Applying the same for Phase-3 with a capacity of 20 MMPTA then the
Share Price can come to 91.90- 165.42

The factors effecting the share price are GRM where i took it as 10$ ,as CALS has a Nelson Complexity Index of 11,The GRM can be more and thus can expect a more Upside in Price.

Another Factor is PE i had taken 10-18 where 10 is the minimum acceptable and 18 is the average PE of ONGC,BPCL,IOC and HPCL Refineries taken together as per Recent Quarter Results.

The Other Factors are Dollar rate.
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This is an Rough Estimate of CALS REFINERIES based on EARNINGS METHOD.